West-central Florida braces for Hurricane Milton —doubtlessly the area’s worst storm in 100 years

TAMPA, Fla. – Lower than two weeks after Hurricane Helene struck Florida’s Massive Bend, Milton is threatening to do the identical, however given the state’s distinctive shoreline, the angle of landfall might enable the brand new storm system to be the worst in over 100 years for components of west-central Florida.

The realm is actually storm-weary, having lately skilled impacts from Helene, Debby, Ian and Idalia.

Nonetheless, the FOX Forecast Heart warns that the distinctive angle of method makes the state of affairs much like what emergency managers have dreaded however ready for over many years.

Throughout Helene, communities south of Florida’s Massive Bend skilled a storm surge of 5-8 ft on common, which was on the decrease facet of the spectrum as a result of wind route and the space from the core of the Class 4 hurricane. 

A observe that sends a hurricane over or simply to the north of the Tampa-Sarasota metro means considerably extra water shall be piled up in comparison with earlier cyclones.

“The West Coast of Florida is spectacularly susceptible to storm surge, as we’ve got seen. Even a tropical storm can push Gulf water to harmful heights, not to mention a powerful hurricane. It’s vital that everyone in Central and South Florida keep well-informed since issues are creating shortly,” mentioned FOX Climate Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.

Throughout a Class 3 hurricane, a storm surge model known as SLOSH, reveals extensive areas of Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties beneath ft of water. 

As a result of topography of the shoreline, a water degree rise of greater than 9 ft could be anticipated if a serious hurricane follows the worst-case situation for the metro.

Trajectories considerably to the north or south of the metro result in vastly altered outcomes, situations that some Floridians have skilled in recent times.

Hurricanes Idalia and Helene made landfall round 130 miles north of Tampa and produced storm surges on the order of 3-8 ft across the metro, due partially to the southerly circulation. 

On the flip facet, Hurricane Ian in 2022 triggered a northeast circulation over the area throughout its landfall close to Fort Myers. 

The hurricane’s winds truly induced a adverse storm surge in Tampa Bay, with water ranges receding by 5 to eight ft. 

Residents have been even pictured strolling alongside the muddy lakebed, although it was ill-advised.

Emergency managers have deliberate for worst case situation for Tampa metro 

Whereas the precise results of Milton received’t be recognized till the hurricane exits the Sunshine State, emergency managers have been making ready for a direct strike for years.

In 2009, the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council developed a planning train it labeled “Project Phoenix,” which simulated the results of a direct strike from a Class 5 hurricane.

The fictional hurricane produced a storm surge of round 40 ft alongside the coast, and downtown Tampa noticed a water rise of 10-15 ft. 

The estimated price of harm was within the a whole lot of billions of {dollars}, which might make the occasion the most expensive in US historical past, if it ever involves fruition. 

Whereas nobody, together with the NHC and an unlimited array of pc fashions, is asking for Milton to succeed in Class 5 standing, there may be some historic precedent with a Class 3 cyclone that made landfall north of Tampa in 1921. 

The 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane developed within the Caribbean and made landfall close to Tarpon Springs as a Class 3 cyclone with winds round 120 mph. 

According to the National Weather Service, a storm surge reached round 11 ft, and information indicated that solely eight folks misplaced their lives.

You will need to observe that the estimated inhabitants within the Tampa Bay metro was simply north of 100,000, in comparison with census estimates immediately that put the mixed inhabitants at greater than 3 million.

In over 180 years of record-keeping, Tampa has skilled solely two direct hits by main hurricanes: the Class 3 cyclone in 1921 and a Class 4 in 1848.